Sarah MacFarlane 

Even as threats from Canada’s southern neighbour continue to swirl and Ontarians grapple with a plethora of priorities for this election, affordability and concerns for the economy hold firm as one of the biggest factors for voters.

It’s an issue that is top of mind for Ontarians and bleeds into many of the other factors that voters are losing sleep over, like housing supply, Canada-US relations and healthcare. However, as Premier Doug Ford’s campaign messaging continues to centre on threats from US president Donald Trump, voters want to know what the trade talks — and the election — will cost them.

In preparation for the election, the Ontario Chamber of Commerce has released Ontario Competes, a report that outlines priorities to strengthen Ontario’s economy and workforce.

“Ontario stands at a critical juncture,” the report states. “As we navigate an evolving economic landscape marked by shifting global dynamics, technological advancements, and urgent threats to the well-being of our communities, the choices we make today will define our province’s future.”

The report argues that Ontario needs a “forward-thinking” leader to guide the province through creating a competitive business and trade environment, strengthening the workforce and prioritizing community infrastructure.

Ian Lee, a professor at the Sprott School of Business at Carleton University, suggests that Ford is focusing on the tariffs to avoid discussing how his government, if re-elected, would tackle the cost of living crisis, a problem that doesn’t have one simple solution.

“I'm not a politician, but I'm skeptical that [tariffs] are the number one issue in most voters’ minds,” Lee told 

 “The data is showing that yes, it's there, but it's not close to the cost of living, because that has been a very real issue for the last three years — since the pandemic — and it hasn't gone away.”

Ford’s government tends to have the advantage, Lee said, as the Progressive Conservatives have a reputation for cutting costs and taxes.

“There is a perception that they're the party of lower taxes. It may not be true, but I think they tend to want lower taxes than the Liberals or the NDP, which are more strongly associated with spending more money on social programs and so forth,” He said. “So I think that's why he's up in the polls. And, you know, he's done things that are very popular.”

Lee said Ford has relied on “stand-in” tactics that don’t necessarily reduce the cost of living but position him as a premier who understands Ontarian’s concerns and lives. For example, the $200 cheques issued by the Ontario government early this year indicated that Ford understands the financial pressures that Ontarians are under, Lee said, but “doesn’t actually change the cost of things.”

When it comes to lowering costs in the years since the pandemic, he says “no government has done well — and this government hasn't either.”

“[The Ontario government] and done things like the cancellation of registration fees for cars and things like that, which are more symbolic in the sense that they don't really fundamentally change your ability to pay for your groceries,” he explained. “But they are seen as a proxy.

“People say, ‘Yeah, he cares for me and cares for us and understands our issues because he did that’,” Lee continued. “And the rhetoric coming out has allowed [the PCs] to argue that they are much more attuned and more empathetic on cost of living issues.”

But has Ford actually taken tangible steps to make life more affordable?

It’s not that simple. Moves like expanding urban boundaries, which Ford has done, can increase the housing supply, which in turn impacts the cost of housing. It’s a ripple effect, Lee explained, and many factors impact affordability and Ontario’s economy. In fact, some of the top priorities for voters in this election — Canada-US relations, healthcare and housing — are all linked to affordability.

Issues like inflation and international trade aren’t necessarily within the premier’s purview, either, but “there are things they can do” to improve affordability, Lee said. Ford’s government hasn’t necessarily done them, though.

“They could propose wage or price controls on rental properties, say ‘Hey, prices have gone up. Let's hit the landlord and cap their price’. Or even just begin suggesting caps on things like groceries,” he explained. “It's a much more immediate, direct action.

“They could also do things such as improving the competitiveness of the economy, by reducing barriers and red tape to allow more competition, but I can't see Ford sitting there and making a macroeconomic theoretical argument,” he said. “He's gone more for the immediate and concrete, something that people can understand, whereas talking about interprovincial trade barriers is much more abstract, even though it has a huge impact.”

Although voters seem relatively divided over some issues, like education or traffic, there is one thing they are united on: reducing the cost of living.

, 61 per cent of voters said the cost of living was the issue they most wanted debated during the election. Growing the economy and creating jobs was prioritized by 26 per cent.

The same poll found that 38 per cent felt that Ford’s government would be best able to grow the economy, and 33 per cent trusts him to reduce the cost of living. Economic management, including dealing with the impact of Donald Trump’s tariffs, is a strength for the Progressive Conservatives, holding a 35-point lead over the Liberals.

“For now, the immediate economic threat posed by Trump’s tariffs appears to have eased, opening the door for other issues to take center stage. If the election remains focused on affordability and economic management, Ford and the PCs will be well-positioned to win,” David Coletto said in the report. “However, if healthcare, education, or broader questions of government competence become dominant themes, the race could tighten.”

Lee weighed in, arguing that younger Ontarians who are looking to buy or even rent a home at an affordable price are struggling to pay bills, even with modest incomes, and especially if they have children. Meanwhile, seniors and aging members of the population are looking at the costs of private healthcare, including long-term care homes, and relying on pensions. For members of these demographics, the cost of living in Ontario becomes more and more of a crisis.

On Feb. 5, Ford said he would take tolls off Highway 407 East, the provincially owned portion of the highway, and permanently cut the provincial gas tax by 5.7 cents a litre, which the PC government has already done on a temporary basis since July 2022.

He has also pledged to make an ongoing tax cut for gasoline and diesel fuel permanent and also remove tolls from the publicly owned portion of Highway 407 east of Toronto.

The affordability crisis has dogged Doug Ford's government over the past several years and was set to be a major campaign issue before Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election.

His opponent Marit Stiles has promised that the Ontario NDP will create a monthly grocery rebate for lower- and middle-income Ontarians, linked to inflation, with a family of four able to get up to $122 per month. She's also pledged to create a provincial consumer watchdog office, establish a Corporate Crime and Competition Bureau, and force large retailers to publicly post when they raise prices more than two per cent in a week.

She also said she'd get rid of tolls for all drivers on Highway 407, on both the government-owned portion and the privately owned part, named the 407 ETR. The party also pledged to buy that part back.

Speaking to reporters at a campaign event in Ottawa on Feb. 4, Stiles said Ontarians “can’t take another hit” if costs go up. She also said that Ford’s government is

“It is so expensive to buy a home. People can't make their rent…Life in Ontario is tough after several years of this,” she said.

Crombie has vowed to double Ontario Disability Support Program benefits. She said the boost would be permanent, pegged to inflation and phased in over two years.

"It will be costed and part of the platform when we release it," she said during a campaign stop at a food bank in Hamilton, adding that the pledge goes "hand-in-hand" with her key priority to find everyone in Ontario a family doctor in four years.

She also said her government would cut middle income tax bracket by 22 per cent and take HST off home heating and hydro bills.

Meanwhile, Green leader Mike Schreiner is promising to immediately double Ontario Disability Support Program and Ontario Works rates and tie future increases to inflation. He’ll also build 310,000 affordable non-profit and co-op homes, including 60,000 supportive homes.

The Green platform also includes plans to cut taxes for low and middle income earners under $65,000 and households making under $100,000 and introduce strict anti-gouging and collusion laws to stop grocery corporations from gouging people on their grocery bills.

“People in Ontario are working harder than ever before, but it’s never been harder to get ahead,” says Schreiner.

So if there’s one thing the four leaders agree on, it’s that the cost of living, working and doing business in Ontario is at a critical high. They just aren’t aligned on who — or what — is to blame.

Top of mind: Pocketbook concerns loom heavily over campaign

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