Sarah MacFarlane 

As Premier Doug Ford continues to make stops around the province to make campaign promises and warn of the impact of tariffs from United States President Donald Trump, other areas of tension for Ontario voters are falling through the cracks.

When it comes to an issue like housing, this could be beneficial for Ford, who may have better luck focusing on tariff threats than his government’s housing record, which critics have slammed as dismal. It’s just a matter of how voters feel about that.

Mike Moffatt is the founding director of the Missing Middle Initiative and executive in residence at the Smart Prosperity. Most recently, his research has focused on Canada’s housing supply and affordability, and he says his concern is that the issue of housing will “get lost among the backdrop” of a trade war with the United States.

“Rents are still substantially high across the province, and polling shows that young people have given up on the dream of home ownership, and understandably so, given the province's housing shortages and high housing prices,” he told iPolitics. “So it's an incredibly important issue that Ontario arguably has the biggest or worst housing crisis in all of Canada. It should be a top of mind issue.”

But when it comes to housing, Ford’s record speaks for itself, said Moffatt. Whether the Ontario government’s housing record is examines by policy outcome or “sheer outcomes," it’s a “disaster”, he said.

According to the Canadian Real Estate Association, the average price of resale residential homes sold across the province in December 2024 was $834,123. By comparison, the national average price marked a small gain of 2.5 per cent on a year-over-year basis to $676,640.

Housing starts are also at a low compared to previous years, said Moffatt, and the reality is that Ford has not met his own standards.

He also said when assessing based on policy, Ford’s government does not stand up well, either.

“Well, the reason why housing starts are so poor is because of interest rates and economic conditions. There's some truth to that, but if we look from a sheer policy point of view, it's hard to point to anything that the Ford government has done to really help the situation,” Moffatt said. “There are a few things, but they're very minor, and some of the biggest changes that Ford has made, he's backtracked from.”

For example, Bill 23, known as the More Homes Built Faster Act, was put forth in 2022 to reduce red tape. But in 2024, the Legislative Assembly of Ontario passed another bill that effectively reversed those changes, Moffatt said.

Ford also attempted to open up the Ontario Greenbelt and expand urban growth boundaries for housing development

“I don't really agree with that, but that would have changed the housing system,” said Moffatt. “And then he had to backtrack on many of those.

“It's hard to point to a lot of policy successes that the Ford government has had, because most of their biggest initiatives they ended up reversing on,” he continued. “So that's where we find ourselves, that both in terms of sheer outcomes, but also in terms of policy reforms, there’s just not much there.”

With tariff discussions continuing, Ford has been able to centre his campaign around standing up for Ontario in the face of economic threat rather than housing, which is reported to be top of mind for voters.

For example, Ford's campaign announcement in Ottawa on Tuesday was ostensibly about a provincial-specific issue, a promise to take on billions of dollars in costs for Ottawa's light-rail transit system, but he spent much of his time hammering home his tariff warnings.

"We've averted an absolute disaster, at least for now," Ford said in Ottawa.

Ford had cited the threat of tariffs as the reason he called the snap, $189-million election for Feb. 27, saying he needed the "largest mandate in Ontario's history" in order to advocate for the province's interests in the face of a punishing trade war, and to spend tens of billions of dollars on provincial stimulus.

The other parties have said an election well over a year before the June 2026 fixed date is not necessary because they would support stimulus spending, and Ford already has a majority mandate to protect Ontario’s interests.

But the other parties haven’t necessarily made housing their main focus, either, which Moffattt said is a missed opportunity.

Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie has been centring health care, while NDP Leader Marit Stiles was also in Ottawa Tuesday to drive home her promises for education.

“We haven’t really seen any of the opposition parties really own the housing file,” said Moffatt.

“So it's not necessarily clear to voters that, even if they're disappointed with the performance of the Ford government — which I think many of them would be — that they necessarily see any of the opposition parties being more credible on the file.”

“I think when you're assessing a government, it can either be based on their past performance, or how they can deal with some future situation,” said Moffatt. “And I think it is probably helpful for this government that the question is more about future-looking issues, because over the last few years, the performance has not been good — particularly on issues related to housing.”

An Abacus Data survey of 1,021 eligible voters in the province conducted from January 22 to 26, 2025 indicated that Ford’s party is in a “solid position” to be re-elected. But 38 per cent of respondents said making housing more affordable was their top priority.

Another 60 per cent said reducing the cost of living in general — housing included — was most important to them. Those who prioritized housing were closely split between support for the Liberals (34 per cent), PC (38) and NDP (32).

Another Abacus poll from Jan. 17 found that Canadians in general don’t believe any levels of government has done enough to fix housing.

David Coletto, founder, chair and CEO of Abacus, said housing has been in the top three issues for Ontarians “for quite a while now,” but that it’s shifted from just young people and aspiring home owners to also being tied to a lack of affordable rent.

“It's now become pretty universal that most people believe that housing is getting more expensive, not less expensive, and that it should be a top priority for government in the provinc,” Coletto told 

 “There's quite a bit of dissatisfaction with how much progress has been made in building enough homes. “It is still high up on people's minds, and it's particularly so among those under 40, who are looking to own homes,

Coletto said that while the PC party is in a “solid position” to be re-elected, its supporters don’t tend to list housing as a top priority.

“They're typically older, they're typically homeowners already, so they have the benefit of actually seeing that the value of those homes have gone up, and so they benefited from that,” he explained. “I don't know if this election is about housing, but I do think that for a lot of young people, for those that are inclined to look at the New Democrats, or the Liberals, the provincial government's record on housing leaves many of them wondering ‘why hasn't he delivered on some of the things he promised to do?’”

He says there isn’t necessarily a party that voters think will do better than the PCs, though, so housing hasn’t become a “wedge issue”.

“Housing should be front and centre in this campaign and if voters, particularly those under 40, had their say, we'd be talking far more about housing than I think we are right now,” he explained. “Everybody cares about housing, but young people in particular. it's personal and it's real because that dream of owning a home.”

Crombie has largely centred her campaign around healthcare, but has also made some major commitments to improving the housing supply.

As mayor of Mississauga, an office she held from 2014 until Jan. 12, 2024, she committed to building at least 120,000 homes by 2031, and said she plans to incentivize housing developments as premier.

This includes requiring home builders to include at least 20 per cent of long-term affordable units as a condition of sale of provincial surplus lands for development.

She also said she’d introduce provincial rebates for development charges for rental housing, removing the provincial sales tax (PST) on construction of purpose-built rental housing and mobilizing departments responsible for housing, municipal affairs, infrastructure and transportation to “remove unnecessary barriers to building more homes.”

The Ontario Liberal Party is also putting a focus on building communities around housing by rewarding towns and cities with top-up funding for community infrastructure that is tied to housing starts, supporting union-led apprenticeship and skilled trades training programs, welcoming more skilled newcomers in construction fields and helping universities and colleges to build affordable places for students to live.

Crombie’s plans involve densification within urban boundaries rather than building on farmland or the Greenbelt, removing height limits near major transit stations and promoting mid-rise buildings on main roads. She also has a detailed platform for streamlining approvals, improving social housing and promoting affordable rents.

As for the Ontario NDP, the plan also involves affordable housing and rent control. Leader Marit Stiles also wants to legalize fourplexes and increase density around transit, according to her campaign, and protect renters with rent control and stopping “unethical” evictions.

On Wednesday, her campaign announced a plan to tackle chronic homelessness by building 60,000 new supportive housing units, funding services that move people out of shelters, and upload shelter funding to the province.

Meanwhile, Mike Schreiner’s Ontario Green Party is proposing a First-Time Homebuyers Plan to remove fees and taxes on the purchase of new starter homes in urban boundaries. He also wants to allow for construction of fourplexes and four-storey buildings and sixplexes in larger cities and removing development charges on homes, condos and apartment units. Like Crombie and Stiles, he would promote midrise buildings on transit corridors and main streets.

He also says he would create an Affordable Communities Fund to cover municipalities’ housing infrastructure costs and remove the Land Transfer Tax for first-time homebuyers.

Like his opponents, Schreiner would also promote midrise buildings on transit corridors and main streets.

Premier Doug Ford’s campaign is a bit outdated. He once promised to build 1.5 million new homes by 2031, for example, but housing starts have been stalling. And his campaign promises have largely been centred on “protecting Ontario” from the tariffs. He hasn’t made any recent promises regarding housing, and his campaign did not respond to requests for comment in time for publication.

Time will tell if the election shifts and focuses on housing. If the polls and his record are any indication, it might be in Ford’s best interest if it doesn’t.

But as Moffatt said, “there is always that expression in politics that you don't have to be the Almighty; you just have to be better than the alternative.”

In this issue of top of mind, we look at the Ford government's housing record, and what his opponents are proposing. 

Top of mind: Ford's housing record under fire

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