Toronto-St. Paul’s is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched ridings in this Ontario election. Historically a Liberal stronghold at both the federal and provincial levels, the riding has become an electoral battleground following recent political shifts. The Ontario Liberals are now trying to reclaim the seat from the NDP’s Jill Andrew, who has held it since 2018.
For nearly 30 years, Toronto-St. Paul’s was a safe Liberal seat federally, even withstanding the party’s devastating defeat in the 2011 election when it was reduced to third-party status nationwide.
However, the riding’s long streak of Liberal dominance was broken in a federal by-election on June 24, 2024, when Conservative candidate Don Stewart won the seat in a close-race against Liberal Leslie Church after the resignation of Carolyn Bennett.