Davis Legree

Reporter

Welcome to QP Briefing's Regional Rundown. We'll be previewing all the key battleground areas ahead of the upcoming Ontario election on Feb. 27. Today, we turn our attention to Toronto and critical matchups in NDP ridings that could determine the electoral fate of Marit Stiles and the NDP.

Stay tuned for future editions on southwestern Ontario and the north, as we tour around the province.

For Marit Stiles and the Ontario NDP, it's Toronto or bust.

More than a quarter of the New Democrats' seats are currently in Ontario's largest city, including Stiles' riding of Davenport, but the party faces a Liberal push and an encroaching threat from Ontario Premier Doug Ford's Progressive Conservative (PC) base in Etobicoke.

In 2022, the NDP won critical battlegrounds in central Toronto, where Ontario Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie is hoping star candidates will help turn them red.

Perhaps none are more critical than Toronto—St. Paul's, where former CP24 anchor Stephanie Smyth is looking to unseat two-term New Democrat MPP Jill Andrew.

Last time around, Andrew took down Liberal candidate Nathan Stall by a mere 1,092 votes, while the polling aggregator 338Canada.com suggests the riding has a nearly 80 per cent chance of turning red when Ontarians head to the ballot box on Feb. 27.

Stephanie Smyth’s bid to win back Toronto-St. Paul’s for the Liberals

For Liberal strategist Ashley Csnady, Smyth is part of a revamped slate of well-established candidates that could propel Crombie's party past the NDP in Toronto.

"For us, the whole GTA is really important and very much in play," Csnady told 

"We have Connor Taras [in Toronto—Danforth], who is a former Paralympian and big advocate for the LGBTQ+ community..., which is really exciting."

Taras will be an underdog against NDP incumbent Peter Tabuns, who has represented Toronto—Danforth since 2006 and previously served as the party's interim leader. Per 338 Canada, this riding is still "safe" for the NDP.

"We're just feeling really good about the quality of candidates we're attracting," continued Csnady, also a vice-president at McMillan Vantage. "Like Liban Hassan in Humber River—Black Creek, who's a sitting school trustee, as well as a Vince Gasparro in [Eglington-Lawrence]."

Humber River—Black Creek was decided by fewer than 1,000 votes in 2022, and public opinion data suggests it could be a three-way race in the upcoming election. Hassan, NDP incumbent Tom Rakocevic, and returning PC candidate Paul Nguyen all figure to be competitive in the riding that was previously known as York West.

Still in York, the NDP have turned its attention to York South—Weston, where PC cabinet minister Michael Ford, the premier's nephew, is not seeking re-election. Ford flipped the riding for the PCs in 2022 after beating former NDP MPP Faisal Hassan, who will attempt to reclaim his old seat at Queen's Park later this month.

"New Democrats have always done really strongly there, and sometimes we've held it," said NDP operative Kim Wright. "With [Ford] not running again, that bolsters an already important seat for us."

Liberals, PCs in dogfight for crucial Peel seats

According to Wright, the NDP historically does well in Toronto, where it won eight of the city centre's nine seats in 2022, so the party's priority has shifted towards maintaining its current base.

"It's about keeping the seats we have, as well as bolstering into other communities," said Wright. "In University—Rosedale and Toronto—St. Paul's, people have been very well represented, as well as in Toronto Centre and Spadina—Fort York."

"The New Democrat MPPs have been really involved and engaged in the community, so we're looking to get them re-elected again."

Wright also emphasized that the NDP would like Beaches—East York "back in our column."

Liberal MPP Mary-Margaret McMahon won the riding by 898 votes in 2022 over NDP nominee Kate Dupuis, who will once again run under the NDP banner in 2025. Polling projects Beaches—East York is "likely" to re-elect McMahon, giving her a 98 per cent chance of retaining the seat.

Meanwhile, on the western side of Toronto, 'Ford Nation' looks as strong as ever, considering the PCs are expected to sweep all three of Etobicoke's ridings.

This includes Etobicoke North, where Ford won in 2018 and 2022 by more than 8,000 votes.

In the last election, the Liberals threatened the PC stronghold in Etobicoke—Lakeshore, where Liberal candidate Lee Fairclough came within two percentage points of upsetting Christine Hogarth. Fairclough has once again put his name forward with the Liberals and will look to best Hogarth in a rematch later this month.

Infrastructure Minister Kinga Surma, the MPP for Etobicoke Centre, is expected to be easily re-elected.

*Incumbent PC MPP Robin Martin is not seeking re-election.

*Incumbent NDP MPP Bhutila Karpoche is not seeking re-election.

Today, we turn our attention to Toronto and critical matchups in NDP ridings that could determine the electoral fate of Marit Stiles and the NDP.

Regional Rundown: NDP look to hold must-win seats in Toronto

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