Davis Legree

Reporter

Welcome to QP Briefing's Regional Rundown. We'll be previewing all the key battleground areas ahead of the upcoming Ontario election on Feb. 27. Today, we explore the crucial ridings in Peel Region, where Ontario Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie will look to jumpstart some momentum against Premier Doug Ford's Progressive Conservatives.

Stay tuned for future editions on Toronto, southwestern Ontario, and northern Ontario, as we tour around the province.

Ontario Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie has represented Mississauga in various capacities since 2008. She's been a federal member of Parliament, a city councillor, and was mayor for nearly a decade.

So, it's rather poetic that the Liberals' electoral fortunes largely depend on Crombie's success in Peel Region.

The region contains 11 ridings, mostly split between the two largest municipalities — Mississauga and Brampton.

In 2022, Peel residents sent 11 Progressive Conservative (PC) candidates to Queen's Park.

It's a trend Crombie and co. are looking to reverse. Upon launching her election campaign, Crombie even stated her intention to flip all six of Mississauga's seats, including Mississauga East—Cooksville, where her name will be on the ballot.

"She is kind of the queen of Mississauga," said Ashley Csnady, a veteran Liberal operative and vice president of McMillan Vantage. "So, we're hoping she can do it."

PCs look to preserve blue strongholds in eastern GTA

Public opinion data suggests Crombie's Liberals face an uphill battle in Peel. The polling aggregator 338Canada projects the PCs will comfortably hold Brampton's five seats, though there is opportunity in Mississauga.

338Canada lists Mississauga Centre, Mississauga—Erin Mills, and Mississauga—Lakeshore as potentially winnable seats for the Liberals, while Mississauga East—Cooksville is considered to be a 50-50 battle.

Crombie's contest in Mississauga East—Cooksville is of particular interest because incumbent MPP Kaleed Rasheed is not running for re-election. Rasheed resigned from the PC caucus in 2023 after reporting emerged about his relationship with a developer involved in the Greenbelt scandal.

Crombie will now square off PC nominee Silvia Gualtieri, who, as reported by 

 is former PC Leader Patrick Brown's mother-in-law.

For Thomas Gendron, a PC strategist, Ontario Premier Doug Ford's party is shovelling resources into Peel ahead of the Feb. 27 election, in an effort to pour cold water on Crombie's attempt to generate any momentum.

"I still see the PCs showing very strong [and] I know they're putting a lot of time, resources and energy into it," Gendron told 

 "They want to look at it like as though they're fighting from second place. They don't take it for granted."

"There's a chance they could lose the entire fold, and they recognize that, if you make gains now..., you have that as an incumbent in the next election, which is why they're fighting so hard."

The 2022 election was a bloodbath for the Liberals, then led by Steven Del Duca, where they were largely uncompetitive in Peel. The PCs won all five Brampton ridings by more than 3,000 votes and, on multiple occasions, the Liberals slipped behind the NDP and placed third

The regional results were instrumental for the PCs, which only won two Brampton ridings in 2018, as they went on to secure a majority victory.

Mississauga's races are likely to be much tighter. The PCs also swept the city's six ridings last election, but the margin of victory was much narrower.

For example, Sumira Malik, who is re-offering in 2025, lost to PC Long-Term Care Minister Natalia Kusendova by fewer than 1,500 votes in 2022.

Gendron acknowledged that there are several provincial cabinet ministers who could be vulnerable in Peel.

"[The PCs] know there are cabinet ministers, like [Associate Minister for Small Business] Nina Tangri in Mississauga—Streetsville, who are fighting for their jobs right now," he said. "Not that [Tangri] is losing actively, but it's certainly not a guarantee."

"I don't see a worst case scenario being that [the PCs] are going to lose the entire thing across the board, but every single seat they lose means potentially not having it in the next election."

Crombie pounces on Ford over lawsuit alleging ex-staffers involved in rezoning scheme

Other Peel cabinet ministers running for re-election include Transportation Minister Prabmeet Sarkaria (Brampton South), Associate Auto Theft Minister Graham McGregor (Brampton North), and Associate Women's Social and Economic Opportunity Minister Charmaine Williams.

Of note, Sarkaria is currently running unopposed in Brampton South, as no other parties have yet nominated candidates.

Meanwhile, the NDP have seemingly lost the foothold they built in Peel Region, and particularly in Brampton. In 2018, when Ford and the PCs won their first majority government, Brampton elected three New Democrat MPPs. This included federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh's brother, Gurratan, who represented Brampton East before losing his seat in 2022.

However, polling suggests the NDP have become a non-factor across the region. In fact, at the time of writing, the party still hadn't nominated candidates in two Brampton ridings.

*Former PC MPP Kaleed Rasheed is not running for re-election.

*List of candidates is subject to change as party's finalize nominations.

Today, we explore the crucial ridings in Peel Region, where Ontario Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie will look to jumpstart some momentum against Premier Doug Ford's Progressive Conservatives.

Regional Rundown: Liberals, PCs in dogfight for crucial Peel seats

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