Davis Legree

Reporter

Welcome to QP Briefing's Regional Rundown. We'll be previewing all the key battleground areas ahead of the upcoming Ontario election on Feb. 27. Today, we head north and explore the close races unfolding in one of the province's most competitive regions.

Stay tuned for the final edition of Regional Rundown, as we conclude our tour of the province in southwestern Ontario.

Perhaps it's fitting that northern Ontario, home to the mineral-rich Ring of Fire, is one of the most hotly-contested regions in the upcoming provincial election.

For such an expansive geographical area, the north contains relatively few seats. In total, 13 ridings cover Parry Sound to Kenora, as well as the more than 800,000 km² in between.

However, almost every seat in northern Ontario is considered a key riding, largely because it's projected to be the most competitive region in the province.

NDP look to hold must-win seats in Toronto

According to the polling aggregator 338Canada.com, less than a third of the region's ridings are expected to be 'safe' for one party.

Progressive Conservative (PC) Leader Doug Ford is expected to hold Kenora—Rainy River, Nipissing, Sault Ste. Marie, and Timmins.

Should that come to fruition, it would be welcome news for a slew of PC cabinet ministers, including Indigenous Affairs Minister Greg Rickford (Kenora—Rainy River), Economic Development Minister Vic Fedeli (Nipissing), and Mining Minister George Pirie (Timmins), all of whom are seeking re-election.

"It's pretty obvious to northerners that they are fairly top of mind for the government, which makes a big difference," said PC insider Laura Kurkimaki, adding that Canada's looming trade war with the U.S. adds another layer to the region's politics.

"Pending the outcomes of what might happen at the beginning of the month, I think there's few places that are more impacted than northern Ontario," she said.

U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to introduce a blanket 25 per cent tariff on all Canadian goods, as well as a 10 per cent levy on Canadian energy, which would come into force on March 4. Trump has already proposed 25 per cent tariffs on all imported steel and aluminum, which will officially be implemented on March 12.

Ford has said an early provincial election is needed to secure a fresh mandate, which would allow him to more effectively respond to the tariff threat.

Algoma Steel, one of the country's largest steel producers, is based in Sault Ste. Marie.

Nine of the region's seats currently project to be close races, mostly between the PCs and NDP.

"These have continuously been orange versus blue battlegrounds," said NDP strategist Kim Wright.

Despite the polling, Wright said the NDP are looking to make gains in northern Ontario, emphasizing the party's desire to flip Sault Ste. Marie, where the New Democrat candidate is Lisa Vezeau-Allen, a current city councillor.

"Sault Ste. Marie has been a [Progressive] Conservative riding for the last couple cycles, taken from New Democrats, we want that back, and we have an incredible candidate up there," said Wright. "[Ontario NDP Leader] Marit Stiles did a really impressive rally up there, and I was really excited about the people who came out in the snow to welcome her to the north."

Northern Ontario is particularly important to the NDP, as the region makes up nearly a quarter of the party's caucus. Polling suggests several orange ridings are vulnerable to turn blue when Ontarians head to the ballot box on Feb. 27.

Ford's housing record under scrutiny at Northern Ontario debate

NDP ridings like Algoma—Manitoulin and Timiskaming—Cochrane are favoured to swing blue, while Mushkegowuk—James Bay, Nickel Belt, and Sudbury are all considered "toss-ups" between the New Democrats and PCs. The latter three seats have all elected NDP MPPs in the last two provincial elections, while France Gélinas, has represented Nickel Belt since 2007.

Gélinas, the party's health critic, is looking for her sixth consecutive election victory, while PC candidate Randy Hazlett, who lost by more than 6,000 votes in 2022, will be looking to flip the seat. Per 338Canada, Gélinas currently has a 77 per cent chance of keeping the riding orange.

Another highly-anticipated rematch is expected in Parry Sound—Muskoka, the region's southernmost riding, where Natural Resources Minister Graydon Smith will look to fend off a push from the Green Party's Matt Richter.

While the riding has voted for the PCs in every election since it was established in 1999, Richter secured more than 40 per cent of the vote in 2022, losing by a mere 2,114 votes.

"The one race I'm really watching with great interest is Graydon Smith's fight against the Greens," Thomas Gendron, a veteran PC operative, told 

"I think the Green Party is putting out very good, stable messaging for themselves, and really making themselves look like a very solid contender."

"It's very exciting to see, not a new entry, but definitely a fresh, new viewpoint that I think is very interesting."

Richter, who has since been named the Greens' deputy leader, is hoping to become the party's third MPP at Queen's Park, where he would join Green Leader Mike Schreiner and Kitchener Centre MPP Aislinn Clancy.

Schreiner has made several trips to the riding during the campaign period, in an effort to bolster Richter's chances against Smith, who's looking to become a two-term MPP.

The Green Party is expected to be non-competitive throughout the rest of northern Ontario.

Meanwhile, the Liberals' electoral fortunes in the north largely rest on the outcome in Thunder Bay—Superior North, where the party is hoping city councillor Brian Hamilton can help turn the riding red once again.

One of the city's two ridings, Thunder Bay—Superior North had long been viewed as a Liberal stronghold, but flipped to the New Democrats after longtime MPP Michael Gravelle didn't re-offer in 2022.

During the last election, NDP MPP Lise Vagueois emerged victorious after a three-way race that saw no candidate secure more than 35 per cent of the vote share. Vagueois bested PC candidate Peng You by exactly 800 votes, while the Liberals slipped to a close third.

Recent public opinion data suggests all three parties have a chance to win the riding, with the Liberals (33 per cent) barely polling ahead of the PCs (32 per cent) and NDP (30 per cent).

All party leaders were in North Bay last week for a debate devoted exclusively to northern Ontario. The discussion largely focused on the ongoing housing crisis, as the incumbent PC government's record on housing was blasted by all three opposition leaders.

*Incumbent PC MPP Ross Romano is not seeking re-election.

In today's Regional Rundown, we head north and explore the close races unfolding in one of the province's most competitive regions.

Regional Rundown: Blue-orange battlegrounds up for grabs in northern Ontario

Read this for free.