Barbara Patrocinio

Reporter

There will be lots on the line for the governing Progressive Conservatives and Ontario Liberals when voters head to the polls in two byelections on Thursday.

Strategists say these votes will signal the staying power of Premier Doug Ford as he has grappled with a tough year marred by scandals, policy flip-flops and now, caucus infighting about the keffiyeh ban in the legislature.

As for Ontario Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie, the byelections are the first tests of her new leadership, especially in the vote in swing riding Milton. 

Conservative strategist Andrew Brander said the Liberals made a misjudgment by not having Crombie run in Milton, saying a close second in a PC-held riding would hardly blemish her reputation while a victory would allow the party to claim strong support for its new leader.

“It was a severe miscalculation for the Liberals to not have Bonnie Crombie run in the seat because had she run, even if the Liberals lose on Thursday, it will be so marginal that her presence would have made up the difference,” said Brander, a vice-president at Crestview Strategy.

“She would have been in the house as of Thursday."

Liberal strategist Andrew Perez disagrees. He says Crombie did the right thing by not running. 

“As Bonnie said, it doesn't make a whole lot of sense for a former mayor of Mississauga who essentially lived her whole adult life in Mississauga to seek a seat in Milton. And you know, we were able to find a strong local candidate in Galen Naidoo Harris,” Perez said.

He added that the fact that the polling is neck-to-neck between Liberals and PCs is a sign that the Liberals are doing well.

“It is not bad for a party that's looking to rebuild itself, and, more importantly, a party that's aiming to form the next government,” Perez said.

The byelections will happen in Milton and Lambton-Kent-Middlesex on May 2. The seats have been empty since Monte McNaughton quit the Ford’s cabinet to work in the private industry for Woodbine Entertainment last year in September, and Parm Gill, another cabinet minister, left to seek election for the federal Conservatives this January.

The most recent polls by Liaison Strategies

 shows that Lambton-Kent-Middlesex will likely stay in Conservative hands, but Milton is a tight neck-to-neck dispute race between Liberal candidate Galen Naidoo Harris and Zee Hamid of the Conservatives.

These polls were conducted from April 23 to 25, using interactive voice response technology. The Lambton-Kent-Middlesex poll surveyed 367 voters and has a margin of error of 5.11, 19 times out of 20. The Milton poll surveyed 433 voters and has a margin of error of 4.71, also 19 times out of 20.

David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies, said that winning in Milton is much more important for the PCs than Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, which has been traditionally a conservative seat.

“For the PCs to win a deep blue seat is not that interesting. Milton, on the other hand, is a swing seat,” he said.

"Over in Lambton-Kent-Middlesex most of the undecided vote has broken to the PCs who are now at 52 per cent of the vote among decided and leaning voters."

He also said that despite everything, voter turnout is probably not going to be high — and that’s what will probably decide the seat in Milton.

“The race is going to come down to voter turnout. We're probably going to see something in the range of 50 per cent, maybe even 40 per cent. If it's a good day, 60 per cent turn out,” Valentin said.

“We know that because the turnout is going to be low, that it's going to be hard for the electorate to match the public opinion of the riding as a whole. But that being said, the most motivated voters will show up and then we'll see the result."

Brander said the Ford government put a lot of effort into the Milton area. Ford’s cabinet and even Ford himself have been seen going door-to-door to back Hamid, whose selection caused some controversy owing to his past political affiliation with the Liberals. Hamid even acted as a delegate for Steve Del Duca in the 2020 Liberal leadership race, which Del Duca won.

PCs name candidate for Milton byelection that acted as Del Duca delegate in 2020: sources

In Milton, two issues have become magnified in the run-up to the vote: a proposed quarry that a residents group has sprung up to protest and the keffiyeh ban in the legislature.

On Saturday, residents, opposition party leaders and MPP candidates came together in Milton in a rally to say they wanted confirmation from the government that the quarry project wouldn't move forward before the byelection.

George Minakakis, chair of advocacy group ACTION Milton, said the local population strongly opposes the Reid Road Reservoir Quarry. Residents are worried that the quarry, which would be built next to Highway 401, will pollute the water supply, make the air quality worse, and cause problems for people who live in the area, Minakakis said.

Ford publicly spoke against the project during a visit in 2020.

“I’m not in favour of that. I believe in governing for the people, and the people don’t want that,” he said at the time.

“We will make sure this doesn’t happen.”

But despite these comments, Ford hasn't committed to killing the project and in the run-up to the byelection, has said he wanted to see how the environmental assessment works out. His latest comments, which were sent by his office, said that his team, along with PC candidate Zee Hamid, will "go through the process."

"We're going to go through the environmental assessment and at the end of the environmental assessment, a decision will be made," Ford said, adding he's willing to review the decision if people "don't like it."

Advocates urge province to stop proposed quarry in Milton ahead of upcoming byelection

However, Branders said that, if anything, voters would probably attach more importance to the keffiyeh ban.

“I assure you that there are many more people in Milton voting for their preferred candidate based on how they think they have been responding to the conflict in Palestine over people who are making their choice based on the quarry,” he said.

Ford has opposed the speaker's ban on the keffiyeh but has refused to whip his caucus to strike it down. PC MPPs defeated two unanimous consent motions in the House to end the ban. Brander thinks Ford's move to oppose the move all connects to the upcoming byelection.

“One can assume that that is certainly with consideration to the byelection,” he said.

“It will be interesting to see if Ford's tone changes after Thursday."

The keffiyeh ban debate reignited last week when independent MPP Sarah Jama wore the black and white scarf while the house was sitting. She was asked to either remove it or leave the house — but she refused to do either. Speaker Ted Arnott told reporters that he “wasn’t prepared” to remove her by force.

Milton is the home to a large Muslim community, and the keffiyeh ban could gain traction in the area. PC candidate Zee Hamid said the ban "further divides the people of Ontario at a time we  need to come together,” and called for it to be reversed.

Valentin said that both issues can impact voters in the riding in different ways, and that sometimes the polls fail to reflect this reality.

“If five per cent of voters who are supporting the Liberals decide because of these issues that they now want to vote Conservative, but another five per cent of traditionally Conservative voters say, ‘Well, I don't like what you're doing with the keffiyeh ban, it's completely inappropriate, I was going to vote PC, but now I'm going to vote Liberal.’ To the naked eye, it looks like nothing has changed. But in reality, five per cent has gone from PC to Liberal and vice versa,” Valentin explained.

“It's very hard sometimes to determine what is the main motivator for someone to go vote, but these issues might definitely influence."

Jeff Rutledge, vice-president at McMillan Vantage and Conservative strategist said that at the end of the day, voters will prioritize affordability and health over anything.

“People are still focused on cost of living, on housing, on affordability. (...) And I think the outcome of it should be a signal to all politicians that Ontarians are singularly focused on how they address the cost of living issues."

Strategists say this week's byelections come with high stakes for Premier Doug Ford and Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie. 

High stakes for Liberals, PCs in Milton byelection

Read this for free.