Marco Vigliotti is the editor-in-chief of iPolitics and QP Briefing. He reports on politics in Ottawa and Toronto, and has covered Parliament Hill for the better part of the past decade. He also worked for the Ottawa Citizen/Sun and The Hill Times.

Marco Vigliotti

Editor-in-Chief

A new report from Scotiabank says Canada should brace for more labour strife over the next two years, warning that recent strikes and lockouts have cost the economy more lost working hours than during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The report largely praises the “resilient” Canadian economy for defying grim forecasts but cautions of “distortions” that are dragging down growth, including an increase in labour disputes over the past year.

Scotiabank vice-president and head of capital markets economics Derek Holt — who 

 — pointed to “stunning” figures showing Canada has lost more hours of labour to striking workers in 2023 than it did at any point during the COVID-19 pandemic.

He warned this trend is likely to worsen in the coming years, as 1 million workers in Ontario (nearly 15 per cent of the province’s workforce) will have their collective bargaining agreements expire over the next two years.

That pattern, along with this summer’s wildfire season and maintenance disruptions in Canada’s resource and auto-manufacturing sectors, have the potential to create significant economic disruptions.

Additionally, while Holt notes these labour disputes are often resulting in wage gains for workers, they do not match the current trajectory of overall labour productivity in Canada, which is falling.

“Fewer and fewer folks want to work as they seek wage gains that are massively above what is justified by tumbling labour productivity through the collective bargaining process that governs about one-third of Canada’s workforce (10 per cent in the U.S.),” he writes.

Available data on the working hours lost can be confusing, but suggests labour disputes were on the rise in 2023.

For its purposes, StatsCan divides workers who were absent for an entire week from those who were only gone for a part of it.

According to StatsCan data, there were 1,183,000 hours of work lost due to labour disputes among those gone for an entire work in December 2023 alone. For those absent for part of a week, that number came out to 933,100.

In Dec. 2020, only 2,000 hours were lost due to a strike or lockout, all among those gone for a full week. Fast-forward to 2022, and for December, those numbers are 53,900 hours for those gone for a full week and 7,100 for those absent for part of a week.

Holt didn’t respond to a request for comment or clarification on the numbers he used prior to deadline on Friday.

‘Affordability crisis’ to loom heavily over labour talks in 2024: Bruske

The past year saw several high-profile labour disputes dominate the headlines

, narrowly averted work stoppages at WestJet and Ford auto plants, and perhaps most notably, 

over 150,000 federal civil servants walked off the job

Then in December, nearly 500,000 Quebec public servants — mostly education and health care workers — went on strike, closing schools and restricting access to services. The province eventually reached a deal with the unions.

The Canadian Chamber of Commerce, a business advocacy group, said the Scotiabank report shows the federal Liberal government needs to rethink its legislation banning the use of replacement workers during strikes.

“Government can’t continue to ignore the facts or the risks associated with banning replacement workers. In fact, its

 on anti-replacement worker legislation stated that the majority of studies on prohibiting replacement workers showed they came with more frequent strikes and lockouts. Not to mention that the large body of research spanning decades and multiple jurisdictions shows that banning replacement workers lowers wages and decreases investment,” Robin Guy, the Chamber’s vice president and deputy leader, government relations, said via email.

“Instead of continuing to play politics, it’s time for government to do what is in the best interest of the country.”

The bill, currently at second reading in the House, would only apply to federally-regulated workplaces and not the public service.

The NDP called for legislation banning replacement workers to be introduced under the terms of their supply-and-confidence agreement with the governing Liberals. The Bloc Quebecois has also voiced support for the bill — Quebec already has a provincial ban on replacement workers — while the Conservatives haven’t indicated how they’ll vote.

Business community targets Conservatives, backbench Liberals in bid to defeat anti-replacement workers bill

The Scotiabank report refers to the entire Canadian economy, not just federally-regulated fields — such as banking, telecommunications and interprovincial trade — that would fall under the anti-scab bill. There are around 1 million people working for federally-regulated employers, 

representing 6 per cent of the Canadian workforce

When reached for comment, Labour Minister Seamus O’Regan said banning the use of replacement workers would actually provide greater stability for the Canadian economy.

“Banning replacement workers means employers and unions will stay focused on the bargaining table — no distractions, no short cuts. That’s where we get fairer, longer lasting deals that are good for workers, businesses, investors, and our economy,” he said in a statement.

“Our supply chains depend on free and fair collective bargaining. They depend on workers and employers coming together at the table to work out a deal. Replacement workers are a short-term solution with volatile consequences — that’s not how you grow an economy and inspire investor confidence.”

One labour expert took issue with the data cited by the Scotiabank report, arguing it overstates the impact of the increase in strikes over the past year.

It’s true the economy lost more hours to labour disputes in 2023 than at any point in the last four years, but Canada was experiencing record low levels of strike activity before entering the pandemic, said Brock University labour studies professor Larry Savage.

StatsCan data shows the number of hours lost due to strikes per 100,000 residents ranged between 4.9 and 13.7 between 2016 and 2020, a steep drop from the 71.2 hours recorded in 1990. Only once between 2006 and 2021 (in 2014) did that number go above 20 hours.

Savage blamed a constellation of factors — from the pandemic to high inflation to the cost-of-living crisis — for creating the perfect conditions for “heightened union militancy in Canada.”

“Workers are fed up. Anecdotally, we’re seeing more ambitious bargaining demands and more strike votes. For many front-line workers, the experience of the pandemic revealed the true value of their labour. They want dignified work and they’re willing to fight for it,” he said via email.

For Savage, the best way to avoid these labour disputes is to “reach negotiated settlements that meet the needs of both employers and union members,” which for the private sector, “means employers should expect to have to redistribute a greater share of profits to workers.”

Wage growth continues to outpace inflation in latest employment outlook

It’s a view echoed by Canadian Labour Congress president Bea Bruske.

 via email that Canada isn’t seeing an historically high number of strikes, — 2005 saw roughly double the number of days lost to work stoppages and it was five times higher in the 1970s — but the ones that have taken place recently have their roots in the affordability crisis.

“Workers have been falling behind for years and inequality has been growing, rapidly. We are seeing too many corporations prioritize their supersized bottom lines instead of addressing legitimate concerns about working conditions, compensation, and job security,” Bruske explained.

“No worker wants to go on strike, there are real sacrifices involved, it’s not a decision taken lightly and is often the last resort. But the struggle for workers’ rights and fair treatment will continue in the face of record-setting corporate greed.”

For Bruske, the way to avoid work stoppages is simple. Employers and governments must “welcome a more balanced economy,” she said.

Ontario Labour Minister David Piccini’s office didn’t respond to a request for comment prior to publication.

The report warns that 1 million workers in Ontario (nearly 15 per cent of the province’s workforce) will have their collective bargaining agreements expire over the next two years.

Canada could see more labour disputes in coming years: Scotiabank report

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